By Paula Estrada
Dr. Ashraf Ghani, an American-educated Afghan politician, finds himself with a majority of votes in the second round of the Afghan presidential election. But allegations of fraud by his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, have brought about an extensive audit, negotiated by U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry. Will Dr. Ashraf Ghani maintain his lead and become the next president of Afghanistan?
Dr. Ashraf Ghani holds an impressive CV, earning a PhD in Anthropology from Columbia University before joining the World Bank. Dr. Ghani served as a special advisor to the UN’s envoy after the US-led invasion of Afghanistan. After which he served as Finance Minister of the country from 2002 to 2004. His diplomatic credentials are flawless, in fact, in 2006 he was seen as a possible successor to Kofi Annan as UN Secretary General. In 2005 he became chancellor of Kabul University. And in 2011, became an advisor to the current Afghan president, Hamid Karzai.
Despite his impressive résumé, he was not expected to emerge victorious from these elections. In 2009, he gave up his US citizenship in order to run for president. He was nothing close to successful, bringing in only about 3% of the votes. But he jumped back on the horse this year, running for president for a second time. In the first round, eight candidates ran, with Dr. Ghani coming in a not-so-close second place, 13 points behind Abdullah Abdullah, who was favored to become the president-elect.
But who doesn’t like a good underdog story? When the preliminary results were released for the second round of the elections on 2 July, Dr. Ghani won with an impressive 56.4% of the votes, surpassing Mr. Abdullah by over a million votes. So how exactly did Dr. Ghani manage to substantially increase his popular support in a mere two months?
Ateeq Nosher, Dr. Ghani’s Director of Policy Analysis, a Harvard-educated economist, and former employee of the World Bank as well, gave some insight. “We were surprised by our poor performance in the first round and decided to completely change our strategy,” he said.
They clustered all 34 provinces in the country into eight different groups. These provinces were clustered together in an effort to target groups with similar characteristics. Nosher explained, “for example, in Kabul, we realized that while the population tended to be more educated and modern, different social strata existed. We decided the best thing to do was to hold different town hall meetings, each addressing a different demographic.” They also used social media campaigns in the larger cities.
In rural areas the strategy was different. They would work with tribal and regional leaders to help unite areas and peoples that were further spread out. Considering the high illiteracy rate in these areas, they resorted to talks that addressed “the importance voting has on their future, and how supporting the right man, like Dr. Ghani, is crucial to the future of the country as a whole,” explained Nosher. On Election Day, they invested a large sum of money in transportation in order to take people to and from the voting polls: “we made sure that distance and lack of transportation were not an issue,” said Nosher.
Notwithstanding his remarkable comeback, and victory for that matter, he hasn’t actually won yet. After the preliminary results were released, Mr. Abdullah claimed victory, despite having lost by about 13 points. He made accusations of fraud and even considered forming his own administration. “There is no doubt we are the winners of this election," Mr. Abdullah told supporters in Kabul, "We will not allow a fraudulent government for a day."
These elections were supposed to be a symbol of Afghanistan’s development and commitment to democracy. This was supposed to be the first peaceful and smooth transition of government in the country. But now that hangs in the balance.
International powers warned Afghanistan of the danger of having a divided country. US Secretary of State John Kerry was dispatched to help the two sides reach an agreement. After hours of negotiations, both parties agreed on an extensive audit of all the votes. This means that the final results will not be available until the beginning of August. Both candidates also agreed that whoever emerges from the audit as the official winner, will unquestionably become the president-elect.
Nosher said he is “100% sure that after the internationally led audit, Dr. Ghani will maintain a firm lead.” With regard to the fraud allegations he also said, “I am not going to blame anyone. But I am sure that there was no systematic fraud, but rather, fraud conducted by individuals on a much smaller scale. But I believe that even if votes are discarded, it won’t be enough to render Dr. Ghani’s victory invalid.”
Another factor that made these recent tensions even more worrying, are the ethnic divisions in Afghanistan. Pashtuns are the largest ethnic group in the country, and by far the dominant one. The majority of politicians and people with power are Pashtuns, e.g. President Hamid Karzai and Dr. Ashraf Ghani.
Tajiks make up the second largest ethnic group in the country, although many hold positions in power, it does not compare to the number held by the Pashtuns. Mr. Abdullah is half-Tajik, half-Pashtun.
In a country so geographically spread out and with such low literacy rates, many people tend to base their ballot on the ethnicity of the candidate, and not on their actual policy proposals. Consequently, Dr. Ghani has managed to obtain the majority of the Pashtun votes, while Mr. Abdullah received almost all of the Tajik votes.
Nosher remarked on this ethnic upheaval, “Although most of Dr. Ghani’s supporters are Pashtuns, they have not chosen him because of his ethnicity, but because he is an intellectual that will lead Afghanistan into a new age.” When asked, off the top of his head, what percentage of his party are non-Pashtuns, he answered, “I would say about 25%; that being said, non-Pashtuns comprise about 35% of the country’s population. I agree, our party must improve upon this, but we are getting there.”
This begs the question, though, how exactly will he lead the country into a new age?
In a country that has only seen tragedy after tragedy, war after war, and now that the US is moving out of Afghanistan, people are expecting rapid change from the new president. But according to Nosher, rapid change is almost impossible. “The problems are embedded in the government, and this takes time to clean. For example, Obama did not bring much change in his first term because it was difficult to accomplish anything; first he had to clean the system,” explained Nosher. Dr. Ashraf Ghani said something similar during his 2007 TED Talk, “the issue of Afghanistan has to be seen in at least a 10 to 20 year perspective.”
Nonetheless, Dr. Ghani’s main focuses will be on social and economic issues such as state development, foreign investment, energy, and dealing with the Taliban.
Dr. Ghani also plans to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement, an agreement between the US and Afghanistan that allows the US to keep some military bases in Afghanistan in exchange for funding the Afghan military and police. President Karzai has refused to sign this treaty, causing much tension with Washington. But both presidential candidates have agreed to sign the treaty if they do win. Nosher explained, “it is impractical and unrealistic if we do not have American support at this stage”.
Although Dr. Ghani’s campaign seems quite perfect, to say the least, he does have one hiccup: Abdul Rashid Dostum. Dostum is a former warlord, and also happens to be Dr. Ghani’s second vice-presidential candidate. The US State Department once referred to him as the “quintessential warlord”. In 2004 US officials even sent a B-1 bomber to monitor and possibly destroy his house. In fact, Dr. Ghani himself once called him a “known killer”. Although Dr. Ghani says that his ticket symbolizes reconciliation, if Dostum is to become a vice-president, he will have considerable power.
Dostum also has a history of treachery. He fought with his large militia along US Special Forces to overthrow the Taliban government in 2001. But then, went on to betray the US. In 2004 he ousted President Karzai’s appointed governor in the Faryab province while seizing the region’s capital.
So what exactly is this man doing on Dr. Ghani’s ticket? It has to do with what every politician really does to get votes: give-some-take-some. Dostum was most likely selected as a vice-presidential candidate to get support from the Uzbek community, a community of which Dostum is considered to be the leader of.
The Uzbek community in Afghanistan is estimated to be around 9 million people. Nosher put it more professionally when he said; “Dr. Ghani has tried to prepare for a more inclusive government by balancing his ticket. He understands that people like Dostum share similar beliefs and traditions and believes that it is important that their voice is represented.” In spite of Dr. Ghani’s benevolent efforts, appointing Dostum does raise an ethical question.
To some the most obvious of answers to this whole ordeal is to create a coalition government. But this, Nosher explained, is unacceptable. “Having a coalition on the table automatically brings democracy into question. Dr. Ghani has been very clear: whoever wins, wins. He will not accept a coalition government”. Nonetheless hearsay at high levels in Kabul suggest that a deal has been struck between the two candidates and that the audit and public arm-wrestling is part of the quintessential Afghan tradition letting Abdullah-Abdullah save face.
While Dr. Ghani is yet to be confirmed as the winner of the 2014 presidential elections, there seems to be a general consensus in the country that he did win. The only question is, will the supporters of his opponents let him?
Dr. Ashraf Ghani, an American-educated Afghan politician, finds himself with a majority of votes in the second round of the Afghan presidential election. But allegations of fraud by his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, have brought about an extensive audit, negotiated by U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry. Will Dr. Ashraf Ghani maintain his lead and become the next president of Afghanistan?
Dr. Ashraf Ghani holds an impressive CV, earning a PhD in Anthropology from Columbia University before joining the World Bank. Dr. Ghani served as a special advisor to the UN’s envoy after the US-led invasion of Afghanistan. After which he served as Finance Minister of the country from 2002 to 2004. His diplomatic credentials are flawless, in fact, in 2006 he was seen as a possible successor to Kofi Annan as UN Secretary General. In 2005 he became chancellor of Kabul University. And in 2011, became an advisor to the current Afghan president, Hamid Karzai.
Despite his impressive résumé, he was not expected to emerge victorious from these elections. In 2009, he gave up his US citizenship in order to run for president. He was nothing close to successful, bringing in only about 3% of the votes. But he jumped back on the horse this year, running for president for a second time. In the first round, eight candidates ran, with Dr. Ghani coming in a not-so-close second place, 13 points behind Abdullah Abdullah, who was favored to become the president-elect.
But who doesn’t like a good underdog story? When the preliminary results were released for the second round of the elections on 2 July, Dr. Ghani won with an impressive 56.4% of the votes, surpassing Mr. Abdullah by over a million votes. So how exactly did Dr. Ghani manage to substantially increase his popular support in a mere two months?
Ateeq Nosher, Dr. Ghani’s Director of Policy Analysis, a Harvard-educated economist, and former employee of the World Bank as well, gave some insight. “We were surprised by our poor performance in the first round and decided to completely change our strategy,” he said.
They clustered all 34 provinces in the country into eight different groups. These provinces were clustered together in an effort to target groups with similar characteristics. Nosher explained, “for example, in Kabul, we realized that while the population tended to be more educated and modern, different social strata existed. We decided the best thing to do was to hold different town hall meetings, each addressing a different demographic.” They also used social media campaigns in the larger cities.
In rural areas the strategy was different. They would work with tribal and regional leaders to help unite areas and peoples that were further spread out. Considering the high illiteracy rate in these areas, they resorted to talks that addressed “the importance voting has on their future, and how supporting the right man, like Dr. Ghani, is crucial to the future of the country as a whole,” explained Nosher. On Election Day, they invested a large sum of money in transportation in order to take people to and from the voting polls: “we made sure that distance and lack of transportation were not an issue,” said Nosher.
Notwithstanding his remarkable comeback, and victory for that matter, he hasn’t actually won yet. After the preliminary results were released, Mr. Abdullah claimed victory, despite having lost by about 13 points. He made accusations of fraud and even considered forming his own administration. “There is no doubt we are the winners of this election," Mr. Abdullah told supporters in Kabul, "We will not allow a fraudulent government for a day."
These elections were supposed to be a symbol of Afghanistan’s development and commitment to democracy. This was supposed to be the first peaceful and smooth transition of government in the country. But now that hangs in the balance.
International powers warned Afghanistan of the danger of having a divided country. US Secretary of State John Kerry was dispatched to help the two sides reach an agreement. After hours of negotiations, both parties agreed on an extensive audit of all the votes. This means that the final results will not be available until the beginning of August. Both candidates also agreed that whoever emerges from the audit as the official winner, will unquestionably become the president-elect.
Nosher said he is “100% sure that after the internationally led audit, Dr. Ghani will maintain a firm lead.” With regard to the fraud allegations he also said, “I am not going to blame anyone. But I am sure that there was no systematic fraud, but rather, fraud conducted by individuals on a much smaller scale. But I believe that even if votes are discarded, it won’t be enough to render Dr. Ghani’s victory invalid.”
Another factor that made these recent tensions even more worrying, are the ethnic divisions in Afghanistan. Pashtuns are the largest ethnic group in the country, and by far the dominant one. The majority of politicians and people with power are Pashtuns, e.g. President Hamid Karzai and Dr. Ashraf Ghani.
Tajiks make up the second largest ethnic group in the country, although many hold positions in power, it does not compare to the number held by the Pashtuns. Mr. Abdullah is half-Tajik, half-Pashtun.
In a country so geographically spread out and with such low literacy rates, many people tend to base their ballot on the ethnicity of the candidate, and not on their actual policy proposals. Consequently, Dr. Ghani has managed to obtain the majority of the Pashtun votes, while Mr. Abdullah received almost all of the Tajik votes.
Nosher remarked on this ethnic upheaval, “Although most of Dr. Ghani’s supporters are Pashtuns, they have not chosen him because of his ethnicity, but because he is an intellectual that will lead Afghanistan into a new age.” When asked, off the top of his head, what percentage of his party are non-Pashtuns, he answered, “I would say about 25%; that being said, non-Pashtuns comprise about 35% of the country’s population. I agree, our party must improve upon this, but we are getting there.”
This begs the question, though, how exactly will he lead the country into a new age?
In a country that has only seen tragedy after tragedy, war after war, and now that the US is moving out of Afghanistan, people are expecting rapid change from the new president. But according to Nosher, rapid change is almost impossible. “The problems are embedded in the government, and this takes time to clean. For example, Obama did not bring much change in his first term because it was difficult to accomplish anything; first he had to clean the system,” explained Nosher. Dr. Ashraf Ghani said something similar during his 2007 TED Talk, “the issue of Afghanistan has to be seen in at least a 10 to 20 year perspective.”
Nonetheless, Dr. Ghani’s main focuses will be on social and economic issues such as state development, foreign investment, energy, and dealing with the Taliban.
Dr. Ghani also plans to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement, an agreement between the US and Afghanistan that allows the US to keep some military bases in Afghanistan in exchange for funding the Afghan military and police. President Karzai has refused to sign this treaty, causing much tension with Washington. But both presidential candidates have agreed to sign the treaty if they do win. Nosher explained, “it is impractical and unrealistic if we do not have American support at this stage”.
Although Dr. Ghani’s campaign seems quite perfect, to say the least, he does have one hiccup: Abdul Rashid Dostum. Dostum is a former warlord, and also happens to be Dr. Ghani’s second vice-presidential candidate. The US State Department once referred to him as the “quintessential warlord”. In 2004 US officials even sent a B-1 bomber to monitor and possibly destroy his house. In fact, Dr. Ghani himself once called him a “known killer”. Although Dr. Ghani says that his ticket symbolizes reconciliation, if Dostum is to become a vice-president, he will have considerable power.
Dostum also has a history of treachery. He fought with his large militia along US Special Forces to overthrow the Taliban government in 2001. But then, went on to betray the US. In 2004 he ousted President Karzai’s appointed governor in the Faryab province while seizing the region’s capital.
So what exactly is this man doing on Dr. Ghani’s ticket? It has to do with what every politician really does to get votes: give-some-take-some. Dostum was most likely selected as a vice-presidential candidate to get support from the Uzbek community, a community of which Dostum is considered to be the leader of.
The Uzbek community in Afghanistan is estimated to be around 9 million people. Nosher put it more professionally when he said; “Dr. Ghani has tried to prepare for a more inclusive government by balancing his ticket. He understands that people like Dostum share similar beliefs and traditions and believes that it is important that their voice is represented.” In spite of Dr. Ghani’s benevolent efforts, appointing Dostum does raise an ethical question.
To some the most obvious of answers to this whole ordeal is to create a coalition government. But this, Nosher explained, is unacceptable. “Having a coalition on the table automatically brings democracy into question. Dr. Ghani has been very clear: whoever wins, wins. He will not accept a coalition government”. Nonetheless hearsay at high levels in Kabul suggest that a deal has been struck between the two candidates and that the audit and public arm-wrestling is part of the quintessential Afghan tradition letting Abdullah-Abdullah save face.
While Dr. Ghani is yet to be confirmed as the winner of the 2014 presidential elections, there seems to be a general consensus in the country that he did win. The only question is, will the supporters of his opponents let him?